Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.9%
Lugo
33.5%
Draw
37.6%
Amorebieta
Expected Goals (xG)
0.78
Lugo
vs
0.94
Amorebieta
Markets
BTTS32.8%
Over 0.582.1%
Over 1.551.0%
Over 2.524.7%
Over 3.59.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
17.9%
0-1
17.0%
1-0
14.1%
1-1
13.0%
0-2
7.9%
1-2
6.1%
2-0
5.5%
2-1
5.1%
0-3
2.5%
2-2
2.4%
1-3
1.9%
3-0
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).