Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.3%
Sp Gijon
24.4%
Draw
16.3%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Sp Gijon
vs
0.71
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS40.6%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.567.4%
Over 2.541.1%
Over 3.520.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.9%
2-0
12.8%
1-1
11.1%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
4.9%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.2%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).