Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.1%
St Pauli
24.5%
Draw
18.4%
Holstein Kiel
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
St Pauli
vs
0.97
Holstein Kiel
Markets
BTTS53.6%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.578.5%
Over 2.553.8%
Over 3.531.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
2-0
10.2%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
6.9%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
5.2%
2-2
4.8%
0-1
4.7%
3-2
3.0%
4-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).