Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.8%
Nacional
27.2%
Draw
28.0%
Aves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Nacional
vs
0.95
Aves
Markets
BTTS43.7%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.564.8%
Over 2.538.6%
Over 3.518.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
1-1
12.5%
0-1
10.7%
0-0
10.2%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.8%
2-2
4.0%
3-0
3.8%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).