Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.6%
Derby
15.9%
Draw
13.4%
Barnsley
Expected Goals (xG)
2.40
Derby
vs
0.93
Barnsley
Markets
BTTS54.3%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.583.8%
Over 2.564.6%
Over 3.542.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.3%
3-0
8.3%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
7.3%
4-0
5.0%
4-1
4.6%
2-2
4.4%
0-1
4.0%
1-2
3.7%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).