Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.9%
Leeds
19.8%
Draw
10.4%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
2.14
Leeds
vs
0.71
Derby
Markets
BTTS45.4%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.554.2%
Over 3.531.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.3%
1-0
11.8%
3-0
9.5%
1-1
9.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.4%
4-0
5.1%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
3.5%
2-2
3.3%
1-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).