Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.2%
Atalanta
21.1%
Draw
12.7%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Atalanta
vs
0.66
Spal
Markets
BTTS40.7%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.571.5%
Over 2.546.2%
Over 3.524.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.1%
2-0
13.9%
1-1
9.7%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
8.6%
0-0
7.9%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.5%
4-0
4.0%
1-2
3.3%
2-2
3.0%
4-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).