Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.0%
Moreirense
20.9%
Draw
23.1%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.97
Moreirense
vs
1.19
Arouca
Markets
BTTS59.5%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.581.9%
Over 2.561.2%
Over 3.538.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
0-1
5.5%
3-0
5.4%
3-2
3.8%
0-0
3.8%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).