Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.4%
Alcorcon
27.1%
Draw
50.5%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
0.83
Alcorcon
vs
1.40
Malaga
Markets
BTTS42.4%
Over 0.589.4%
Over 1.565.2%
Over 2.538.6%
Over 3.518.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.2%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
10.6%
0-2
10.5%
1-0
9.0%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
5.2%
0-3
4.9%
1-3
4.1%
2-0
3.7%
2-2
3.6%
0-4
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).