Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →86.7%
Benfica
9.4%
Draw
3.9%
Maritimo
Expected Goals (xG)
2.95
Benfica
vs
0.49
Maritimo
Markets
BTTS36.5%
Over 0.597.0%
Over 1.585.6%
Over 2.566.9%
Over 3.545.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.9%
3-0
13.7%
4-0
10.1%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
6.8%
3-1
6.7%
5-0
6.0%
4-1
5.0%
1-1
4.4%
0-0
3.0%
5-1
2.9%
0-1
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).