Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.0%
Derby
25.9%
Draw
25.1%
QPR
Expected Goals (xG)
1.67
Derby
vs
1.14
QPR
Markets
BTTS55.9%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.553.2%
Over 3.530.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
5.3%
3-0
4.7%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).