Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.5%
Spal
28.4%
Draw
22.1%
Alessandria
Expected Goals (xG)
1.51
Spal
vs
0.93
Alessandria
Markets
BTTS48.4%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.571.3%
Over 2.544.1%
Over 3.523.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
9.9%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).