Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.6%
Malaga
22.1%
Draw
34.3%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Malaga
vs
1.62
Santander
Markets
BTTS67.5%
Over 0.597.0%
Over 1.586.0%
Over 2.567.4%
Over 3.545.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.2%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.6%
2-2
7.0%
1-0
5.8%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
5.3%
0-1
5.1%
3-2
4.3%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
4.1%
2-3
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).