Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.7%
Nacional
26.4%
Draw
17.9%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Nacional
vs
0.66
Tondela
Markets
BTTS35.8%
Over 0.587.8%
Over 1.560.5%
Over 2.534.0%
Over 3.515.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.4%
2-0
12.6%
0-0
12.2%
1-1
11.2%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.2%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
3.9%
1-2
3.8%
0-2
2.7%
2-2
2.7%
4-0
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).