Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.1%
Gil Vicente
20.5%
Draw
15.4%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.23
Gil Vicente
vs
1.02
Arouca
Markets
BTTS57.7%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.584.2%
Over 2.563.0%
Over 3.540.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.7%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
8.0%
3-1
7.3%
3-0
7.2%
2-2
5.0%
0-0
4.6%
1-2
4.5%
4-1
4.1%
4-0
4.0%
3-2
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).