Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →79.7%
Chelsea
12.8%
Draw
7.5%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
3.27
Chelsea
vs
1.02
Luton
Markets
BTTS62.2%
Over 0.598.0%
Over 1.593.4%
Over 2.580.1%
Over 3.562.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1
8.2%
3-0
8.0%
2-1
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
4-1
6.7%
4-0
6.5%
1-1
5.2%
5-1
4.4%
5-0
4.3%
3-2
4.2%
1-0
3.8%
2-2
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).