Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.1%
Fiorentina
25.9%
Draw
26.0%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Fiorentina
vs
1.00
Spal
Markets
BTTS48.3%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.544.6%
Over 3.523.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.7%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.5%
3-0
4.5%
3-1
4.4%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).