Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.3%
Sp Braga
20.4%
Draw
10.3%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Sp Braga
vs
0.52
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS33.5%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.567.3%
Over 2.541.3%
Over 3.520.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.0%
2-0
16.0%
3-0
9.7%
0-0
9.3%
1-1
8.7%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
5.4%
3-1
5.0%
4-0
4.4%
1-2
2.4%
4-1
2.3%
2-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).