Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.9%
Benfica
14.7%
Draw
4.4%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.37
Benfica
vs
0.41
Tondela
Markets
BTTS30.8%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.576.8%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.4%
1-0
14.4%
3-0
13.8%
4-0
8.1%
2-1
7.1%
0-0
6.6%
1-1
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
5-0
3.8%
4-1
3.3%
0-1
2.2%
5-1
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).