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16 Aug 2025 · 20:05

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.6%
Nice
23.9%
Draw
38.4%
Toulouse

Expected Goals (xG)

1.47

Nice

vs
1.48

Toulouse

Markets

BTTS59.1%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.579.0%
Over 2.556.5%
Over 3.534.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.1%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
8.1%
1-0
8.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
2-0
5.6%
0-0
4.9%
1-3
4.2%
3-1
4.1%
2-3
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).