Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.7%
Arouca
13.6%
Draw
77.8%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77
Arouca
vs
2.66
Benfica
Markets
BTTS49.6%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.585.4%
Over 2.566.6%
Over 3.544.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
11.5%
0-3
10.2%
0-1
8.9%
1-2
8.8%
1-3
7.8%
0-4
6.8%
1-1
6.3%
1-4
5.2%
0-5
3.6%
2-2
3.4%
2-3
3.0%
0-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).