Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.4%
Manchester City
25.2%
Draw
24.3%
Liverpool
Expected Goals (xG)
1.89
Manchester City
vs
1.27
Liverpool
Markets
BTTS62.6%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.583.8%
Over 2.561.3%
Over 3.539.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
6.6%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.6%
3-0
4.8%
0-1
4.0%
3-2
3.9%
0-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).