Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.4%
Cheltenham
24.9%
Draw
35.7%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.37
Cheltenham
vs
1.29
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS53.7%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.574.0%
Over 2.549.8%
Over 3.527.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.6%
0-0
6.4%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
5.5%
3-1
3.9%
1-3
3.4%
3-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).