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AHT: 10CSV

21 Jan 2026 · 20:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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28.8%
Stoke
30.7%
Draw
40.5%
Middlesbrough

Expected Goals (xG)

0.99

Stoke

vs
1.22

Middlesbrough

Markets

BTTS45.3%
Over 0.588.1%
Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.538.1%
Over 3.518.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.2%
0-1
12.4%
0-0
11.9%
1-0
9.9%
0-2
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
4.0%
0-3
3.3%
1-3
3.3%
3-1
2.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).