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HHT: 12CSV

07 May 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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22.1%
Sunderland
31.8%
Draw
46.1%
Chelsea

Expected Goals (xG)

0.85

Sunderland

vs
1.33

Chelsea

Markets

BTTS43.7%
Over 0.586.8%
Over 1.565.6%
Over 2.536.9%
Over 3.517.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.6%
0-1
13.4%
0-0
13.2%
0-2
10.0%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
5.4%
0-3
4.4%
2-0
4.1%
1-3
3.7%
2-2
3.6%
2-3
1.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).