Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.8%
Mainz
31.3%
Draw
25.9%
Hamburg
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Mainz
vs
0.89
Hamburg
Markets
BTTS42.5%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.563.3%
Over 2.535.3%
Over 3.516.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.2%
1-0
13.8%
0-0
13.1%
0-1
9.8%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
4.8%
3-0
3.7%
2-2
3.6%
3-1
3.3%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).