Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.1%
Bayern Munich
17.2%
Draw
14.7%
Dortmund
Expected Goals (xG)
2.73
Bayern Munich
vs
1.25
Dortmund
Markets
BTTS67.2%
Over 0.597.7%
Over 1.591.2%
Over 2.575.9%
Over 3.556.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.7%
3-1
7.9%
2-0
7.0%
1-1
6.9%
3-0
6.3%
2-2
5.4%
4-1
5.4%
3-2
4.9%
1-0
4.6%
4-0
4.3%
1-2
4.0%
4-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).