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20 Apr 2024 · 17:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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45.1%
QPR
27.7%
Draw
27.2%
Preston

Expected Goals (xG)

1.51

QPR

vs
1.12

Preston

Markets

BTTS53.5%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.574.8%
Over 2.548.9%
Over 3.527.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
4.6%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.1%
3-2
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).