Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.9%
Birmingham
28.7%
Draw
35.4%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Birmingham
vs
1.26
Derby
Markets
BTTS52.3%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.546.2%
Over 3.524.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.2%
0-1
9.2%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
3.4%
3-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).