Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.2%
Northampton
23.5%
Draw
17.3%
Hartlepool
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Northampton
vs
0.75
Hartlepool
Markets
BTTS42.0%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.568.5%
Over 2.542.8%
Over 3.521.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.5%
2-0
12.3%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
7.3%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.5%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).