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AHT: 11CSV

13 Feb 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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69.8%
Crystal Palace
21.5%
Draw
8.6%
Watford

Expected Goals (xG)

2.02

Crystal Palace

vs
0.60

Watford

Markets

BTTS40.2%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.574.9%
Over 2.548.7%
Over 3.526.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
14.9%
1-0
13.5%
3-0
10.1%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.5%
3-1
6.0%
4-0
5.1%
0-1
3.1%
4-1
3.0%
2-2
2.7%
1-2
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).