Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.9%
Chelsea
29.9%
Draw
22.2%
Everton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Chelsea
vs
0.93
Everton
Markets
BTTS48.3%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.570.8%
Over 2.543.0%
Over 3.522.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
1-0
11.6%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).