Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.6%
St Pauli
28.0%
Draw
26.4%
Hertha
Expected Goals (xG)
1.51
St Pauli
vs
1.10
Hertha
Markets
BTTS53.2%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.574.7%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.2%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).