Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.9%
Napoli
27.4%
Draw
22.7%
Lazio
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Napoli
vs
0.82
Lazio
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.564.0%
Over 2.537.3%
Over 3.517.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.6%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
11.0%
2-0
10.5%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
3.9%
0-2
3.8%
2-2
3.5%
4-0
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).