Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.8%
Manchester City
19.8%
Draw
12.4%
Tottenham
Expected Goals (xG)
2.38
Manchester City
vs
0.96
Tottenham
Markets
BTTS57.2%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.585.8%
Over 2.565.0%
Over 3.543.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.2%
3-0
8.0%
3-1
7.7%
1-0
7.3%
4-0
4.7%
0-0
4.6%
2-2
4.6%
4-1
4.6%
1-2
3.9%
3-2
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).