Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.0%
Mainz
30.1%
Draw
17.9%
St Pauli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
Mainz
vs
0.67
St Pauli
Markets
BTTS36.8%
Over 0.585.7%
Over 1.560.4%
Over 2.532.5%
Over 3.514.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
0-0
14.3%
1-1
12.9%
2-0
12.0%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
4.0%
3-1
3.6%
0-2
3.0%
2-2
2.7%
4-0
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).