Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.8%
Porto
31.5%
Draw
30.8%
Sp Lisbon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.97
Porto
vs
0.84
Sp Lisbon
Markets
BTTS34.7%
Over 0.584.2%
Over 1.553.5%
Over 2.527.2%
Over 3.511.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.4%
0-0
15.8%
0-1
14.3%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
6.5%
0-2
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-2
2.7%
3-0
2.5%
3-1
2.1%
0-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).