Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.3%
Hamburg
32.1%
Draw
33.6%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Hamburg
vs
1.03
Mainz
Markets
BTTS42.9%
Over 0.586.5%
Over 1.562.6%
Over 2.534.6%
Over 3.515.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
13.5%
1-0
12.0%
0-1
11.9%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-1
2.5%
1-3
2.4%
3-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).