Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.0%
Ascoli
32.4%
Draw
23.6%
Spezia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Ascoli
vs
0.82
Spezia
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.585.5%
Over 1.561.4%
Over 2.533.1%
Over 3.514.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.7%
0-0
14.5%
1-1
14.3%
2-0
9.7%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.3%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
3.9%
2-2
3.2%
3-1
3.2%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).