Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.7%
Tondela
21.3%
Draw
70.0%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.51
Tondela
vs
1.89
Benfica
Markets
BTTS34.6%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.569.7%
Over 2.543.0%
Over 3.522.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.6%
0-2
16.2%
0-3
10.2%
0-0
9.6%
1-1
9.3%
1-2
8.3%
1-3
5.2%
0-4
4.8%
1-0
4.1%
1-4
2.5%
2-1
2.3%
2-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).