Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.3%
Swindon
26.3%
Draw
35.4%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Swindon
vs
1.19
Exeter
Markets
BTTS49.0%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.569.4%
Over 2.544.0%
Over 3.522.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
3.1%
3-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).