Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.5%
Vallecano
27.8%
Draw
42.6%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Vallecano
vs
1.37
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.570.9%
Over 2.544.7%
Over 3.523.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
9.0%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.1%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).