Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →2.8%
Southampton
10.8%
Draw
86.4%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.45
Southampton
vs
2.94
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS35.0%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.585.8%
Over 2.565.8%
Over 3.543.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
14.6%
0-3
14.3%
0-4
10.5%
0-1
9.3%
1-2
6.6%
1-3
6.4%
0-5
6.2%
1-1
5.1%
1-4
4.7%
0-0
4.0%
1-5
2.8%
2-2
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).