Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →90.0%
Arsenal
8.2%
Draw
1.8%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
3.25
Arsenal
vs
0.40
Watford
Markets
BTTS32.3%
Over 0.596.9%
Over 1.588.4%
Over 2.570.6%
Over 3.549.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
14.9%
2-0
13.7%
4-0
12.1%
1-0
8.0%
5-0
7.8%
3-1
6.0%
2-1
5.5%
4-1
4.8%
1-1
3.9%
5-1
3.1%
0-0
3.1%
3-2
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).