Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.1%
Alaves
26.1%
Draw
15.8%
Valladolid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Alaves
vs
0.63
Valladolid
Markets
BTTS35.8%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.562.1%
Over 2.535.2%
Over 3.516.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.1%
2-0
13.3%
0-0
12.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.7%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
4.1%
1-2
3.5%
2-2
2.6%
4-0
2.4%
0-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).