Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →12.3%
Ferrol
20.4%
Draw
67.3%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.68
Ferrol
vs
1.94
Castellon
Markets
BTTS42.1%
Over 0.592.8%
Over 1.573.5%
Over 2.548.6%
Over 3.526.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.2%
0-2
13.7%
1-1
9.5%
1-2
9.3%
0-3
8.9%
0-0
7.2%
1-3
6.0%
1-0
5.1%
0-4
4.3%
2-1
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
1-4
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).