Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.4%
Numancia
28.8%
Draw
18.8%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Numancia
vs
0.65
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS34.8%
Over 0.586.0%
Over 1.558.1%
Over 2.531.2%
Over 3.513.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.5%
0-0
14.0%
2-0
12.0%
1-1
11.9%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
7.8%
3-0
5.2%
1-2
3.9%
3-1
3.4%
0-2
3.0%
2-2
2.6%
4-0
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).