Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.1%
Malaga
18.5%
Draw
13.5%
Villarreal B
Expected Goals (xG)
2.21
Malaga
vs
0.87
Villarreal B
Markets
BTTS51.6%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.559.5%
Over 3.537.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.2%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
8.7%
3-0
8.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-0
4.6%
0-0
4.5%
2-2
4.2%
0-1
4.1%
4-1
4.0%
1-2
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).