Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.7%
Marseille
20.5%
Draw
24.8%
Lille
Expected Goals (xG)
2.10
Marseille
vs
1.36
Lille
Markets
BTTS65.1%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.585.8%
Over 2.567.2%
Over 3.545.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.7%
2-0
6.9%
1-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
4.8%
0-1
4.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-1
3.5%
2-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).