Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.2%
Maritimo
15.1%
Draw
76.7%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.61
Maritimo
vs
2.36
Benfica
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.557.0%
Over 3.534.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
14.2%
0-1
12.4%
0-3
11.2%
1-2
8.7%
1-1
7.1%
1-3
6.9%
0-4
6.6%
0-0
4.8%
1-4
4.0%
1-0
3.5%
0-5
3.1%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).